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Click & Close Ads Click & Close Ads Ahead of UK chancellor George Osborne speaking in parliament about Greece, UBS has taken a look at the possible impact on the UK of the Greek crisis: While the direct exposure of the UK to Greece is very limited, it is the potential for contagion that will likely be of most concern. For now the main focus is on the impact on financial markets. The monetary policy committee has scope to watch how the Greek referendum unfolds. If it needs to act, we believe the Committee is likely to sound rhetorically dovish first and foremost. After that, it has a range of options. Click & Close Ads Click & Close Ads The most immediate asset market transmission from greater Grexit risk to the UK is likely through the currency. At the Asia open the euro/pound had already breached 0.70 before recovering. We expect the euro to continue trading heavily in the coming days and, barring a surge in general dollar demand, the Bank of England exchange rate index could break 93, dragging sterling further away from the Bank’s own assumptions (at 90) and comfort levels. Rhetoric on the currency may rise but more explicit action looks unlikely barring serious contagion.Two may be a coincidence, three is a trend, and four looks rather like a plan. The eurozone’s three largest economies have all come out today and told Greece exactly what they believe Sunday’s referendum is about, and it’s not simply about choosing the old reform offer. Matteo Renzi warning that Greece is voting to choose between the euro and the drachma makes a hat-trick.Click & Close Ads Click & Close Ads